In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of liquidity and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the premier choice for regulated access within the United States. Manifold offers an excellent environment for recreational forecasting without financial stakes. For those based in Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal solution.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in annual trading volume. Most robust markets in political events and digital assets |
| Markets | More than 1,000 live markets spanning politics, digital currencies, athletics, scientific developments, and entertainment |
| Fees | No house edge charged. Bid-ask spreads range from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon network (blockchain wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding the United States. Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional forecasters and those with a competitive information advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-licensed prediction market operator. It serves the American market segment, which cannot access Polymarket, and has experienced substantial expansion. Limitations include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent regulatory constraints that prohibit certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. It functions as an excellent environment for honing forecasting abilities and participating in group predictions — though it lacks genuine financial returns. The platform hosts in excess of 10,000 user-generated prediction markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus compiles probability estimates contributed by its analyst network. It operates without real-money stakes but excels at enabling participants to establish a verifiable forecasting track record and specialises in international affairs prediction. The platform is frequently referenced in peer-reviewed studies examining forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair functions as the pioneering betting exchange, processing hundreds of billions across athletic events and political contests each year. Strengths include traditional currency options, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Drawbacks comprise a 2-5% commission structure on net gains, absence of blockchain asset markets, and comparatively restricted political market selection when benchmarked against Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For international participants seeking maximum market depth and the broadest selection of available opportunities: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain element whilst granting you complete access to Polymarket's comprehensive order book. Start trading on PolyGram →