In this guide
Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw participants with exceptional technical credentials — laboratory scientists, software engineers, and technology correspondents capable of interpreting complex innovations ahead of mainstream awareness. These venues reward specialised knowledge and rigorous analysis.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint servers (arXiv, bioRxiv): emerging findings made public before formal peer-review processes conclude
- Patent filings: significant technological breakthroughs frequently show up in patent applications ahead of public announcements
- Regulatory pipeline: approval schedules and timelines from bodies such as the FDA and EMA for pharmaceutical and medical device developments
- Engineering conference presentations: public disclosures and strategic roadmaps shared by SpaceX, NASA, and leading technology firms
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- Resolution relies on independently verifiable information: company announcements and statements, articles in peer-reviewed journals, official regulatory decisions, or reports from established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram features the most widely-followed science markets. Specialised or obscure topics often find homes on Manifold Markets, which operates with play-money contracts and allows community-created markets.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely — and they typically possess the strongest informational advantage. Opinions and consensus within the research community, shared openly at academic gatherings, frequently shift market valuations weeks in advance.