In this guide
Successful prediction market traders operate with discipline and structure rather than impulse — they adhere to a methodical weekly schedule that optimises how they spend their research hours. Below is a battle-tested 5-hour weekly system.
Monday: Calendar & Market Scanning (1 hour)
- Examine the week ahead for significant developments: central bank announcements, political contests, sporting fixtures, economic indicators
- Browse PolyGram to spot markets that have launched recently
- Pinpoint 3-5 opportunities where you might possess an advantage during the coming week
- Assess your current holdings — has any fresh intelligence emerged that warrants position adjustments?
Tuesday-Thursday: Deep Research (2 hours)
- Conduct thorough investigation into each market you've identified
- Establish your own probability assessment independent of what the markets are currently pricing
- Weigh your assessment against the prevailing market quote — commit only when the discrepancy justifies action
- Determine appropriate Kelly fraction sizing for positions you intend to take
Friday: Execution & Review (1 hour)
- Place this week's trades when liquidity is at its peak
- Examine any markets settling during the current week — document how outcomes aligned with your forecasts
- Refresh your tracking spreadsheet with fresh data
Weekend: Performance Analysis (1 hour)
- Tally weekly returns and cumulative Brier score progression
- Spot any recurring patterns or biases in your recent forecasting
- Digest one pertinent academic study or expert commentary within your chosen specialisation
FAQ
- Can I be profitable trading prediction markets part-time?
- Absolutely — numerous successful traders dedicate fewer than 10 hours weekly. The calibre of your investigation outweighs the sheer volume of hours invested.
- What tools do I need for this routine?
- PolyGram platform for placing trades, a basic spreadsheet for record-keeping, and access to your preferred research materials. Nothing exotic is required.