Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| August 31 | 95% |
| August 21 | 94% |
| August 14 | 89% |
| August 7 | 3% |
| June 5 | 0% |
| June 12 | 0% |
| June 19 | 0% |
| June 26 | 0% |
| June 30 | 0% |
| July 31 | 0% |
| July 3 | 0% |
| July 10 | 0% |
| July 17 | 0% |
| July 24 | 0% |
| July 27 | 0% |
| July 28 | 0% |
| July 29 | 0% |
| July 30 | 0% |
Market context
Google has already shipped several Gemini updates in 2026, but the key point for this market is that the flagship **Pro** tier has still not reached broad public release. Google’s own model documentation shows Gemini 3.1 Pro in **preview** for apps, API and enterprise use, while the lighter 3.5 Flash and 3.1 Flash-Lite variants are already on the public list of released models.[1][9][15]
That history makes the current **0%** crowd price look like an extreme sceptical view rather than a neutral one. Google has a pattern of staging launches by capability tier, with Pro models commonly appearing in preview before full availability, and Reuters reported on 21 July that Gemini 3.5 Pro was still being tested with partners and had no confirmed timing, despite earlier launch slippage and repeated “coming soon” language from Google.[13][14] TechCrunch likewise reported on 21 July that Google had released three new Gemini models but still no 3.5 Pro, with DeepMind product lead Logan Kilpatrick saying it was being tested with partners and hoped to “land soon”.[8]
The main catalysts are straightforward: an official Google blog post, a model card update, or a Gemini API/developer changelog entry that changes Pro from preview or partner testing to general availability.[2][5][9] Traders should also watch for product roll-outs inside the Gemini app, AI Studio, Vertex AI and Gemini Enterprise, because Google often expands access across those surfaces in stages, and the market specifically counts any post-creation model labelled **Pro** if it is launched and made available to the general public.[1][3][15]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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