توقع: What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price movement on 11 August 2026 will be shaped by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional positioning in the months leading to that date. The current 0% implied probability suggests the market has assigned negligible likelihood to Bitcoin reaching a specific price threshold on that exact day, though the settlement window extends to 12 August, allowing for overnight volatility to factor into final settlement.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's daily price swings have ranged from 5–15% during periods of moderate volatility, with larger moves occurring around Federal Reserve announcements, inflation data releases, or significant regulatory news from major jurisdictions. The 2024–2025 period saw Bitcoin oscillate between $40,000 and $70,000 depending on US monetary policy signals and spot exchange-traded fund flows. A 0% crowd probability typically reflects either an extremely narrow price target that falls outside consensus expectations or insufficient liquidity and interest in the specific outcome.

Traders should monitor developments in US monetary policy through mid-2026, particularly any interest rate decisions or inflation reports scheduled near the settlement date. Regulatory announcements from the SEC, CFTC, or international bodies can trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, major cryptocurrency exchange volumes and institutional derivative positioning—particularly options expiry dates and futures funding rates—often correlate with concentrated price moves on specific calendar dates. News from major Bitcoin miners regarding production or sales, or announcements from large corporate holders, could also drive directional conviction in the days preceding 11 August.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.