Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 75% |
| Map 2 Winner | 70% |
| Map 1 Winner | 68% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nuclear TigeRES (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nuclear TigeRES (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nuclear TigeRES (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+1.5) | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 41% |
Market context
Nuclear TigeRES face CYBERSHOKE Prospects in a NODWIN Clutch Series playoffs quarter-final BO3, and the market’s 68% implied YES price leaves Nuclear TigeRES as a clear but not overwhelming favourite. The main historical read-through is that these sides have already split recent meetings in the wider NODWIN Clutch ecosystem: Nuclear TigeRES beat CYBERSHOKE 2-0 in a June 2026 group-stage match, but CYBERSHOKE took the December 2025 playoff meeting 2-1, which argues against treating this as a one-way matchup.[4][5][7][13]
The form line is slightly mixed rather than dominant. Strafe lists Nuclear TigeRES at #43 and CYBERSHOKE Prospects at #94, while also noting Nuclear TigeRES have won 2 of their last 5 and CYBERSHOKE Prospects 4 of their last 5, a combination that helps explain why the line is shorter than a pure ranking gap would suggest.[17] A separate live broadcast of the series shows map vetoes already in motion, with Nuclear TigeRES picking Ancient and CYBERSHOKE picking Dust2, so any trader watching live will care more about the third-map pathway than the raw pre-match number.[1]
The main catalysts are schedule certainty and roster confirmation. The market settles only if the match is played and resolved by the deadline, so a postponement beyond seven days, cancellation, or any administrative non-result would force a 50-50 outcome under the rules. The current live listing and tournament pages indicate the quarter-final is on the day’s schedule, but there is no separate injury or suspension issue in the available sources, so late team-sheet changes or a revised start time would be the key items to watch.[12][17][18]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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