Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Yawara Esports (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Yawara Esports (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-9.5) vs Yawara Esports (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Yawara Esports (+6.5) | 7% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Yawara Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yawara Esports and Keyd face off in the BetBoom Storm Playoffs quarterfinal on 13 August, with the winner advancing through a best-of-three format. The match represents a significant test for both Brazilian-region squads competing in one of the region's premier Counter-Strike tournaments. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme uncertainty about match occurrence or a data anomaly, as neither team has been formally withdrawn and the event remains scheduled within the settlement window.
Historical precedent in regional Brazilian Counter-Strike playoffs shows that fixture cancellations or extended delays beyond the seven-day threshold occur infrequently, typically only following organisational collapse or force majeure events. BetBoom Storm has maintained consistent scheduling through previous iterations, with matches proceeding as scheduled barring exceptional circumstances. The 50-50 resolution clause applies only if the match is entirely unplayed or delayed beyond 20 August without completion—a scenario that would require significant operational failure.
Traders should monitor BetBoom's official channels for any roster changes, visa complications, or venue issues in the 48 hours preceding the fixture. Recent Brazilian esports events have proceeded without major disruptions, though equipment or technical delays have occasionally compressed match schedules. Confirmation of both teams' participation and final line-up rosters typically arrives 24–48 hours before tournament play. The settlement window closing on 14 August at 02:00 UTC provides a tight margin; any match extending into overtime or requiring rescheduling would create resolution ambiguity dependent on whether a winner is determined before that deadline.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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