Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Falcons meet 1win in a Dota 2 best-of-two at 1win Essence II, and the market is already priced as if Falcons should dominate. That fits the recent record: Falcons have beaten 1win in both of their last two Dota 2 head-to-heads, including a 2-0 at FISSURE Universe Episode 4 in March 2025 and a 2-0 at The International 2024, while the wider results page shows Falcons coming into this event off a strong July run and 1win arriving with more mixed form.[1]
For traders, the key read is whether anything changes in the final team news, because the current number looks anchored to rankings, recent head-to-heads and the gap in results rather than a live edge. Falcons are listed at number one in the Strafe Dota 2 world rankings and have won four of their last five, while 1win sit far lower and have won only two of their last five, which is the sort of profile that often keeps “more markets” skewed heavily towards the favourites unless a substitution, visa issue or schedule clash appears close to start time.[13] Falcons’ recent schedule has also been dense, with matches across the Esports World Cup period and then 1win Essence II, so any fatigue or roster rotation would matter more than in a standard fixture.[11][16]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs 1win - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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