Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 72% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 61% |
| Game 2 Winner | 53% |
| Ends in Daytime | 53% |
| Game 1 Winner | 52% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 33% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 32% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 32% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 32% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 28% |
| Game Handicap: IW (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) | 27% |
| Any Player Rampage | 20% |
| Any Player Rampage | 11% |
| Any Player Rampage | 8% |
Market context
Iron Wing face Team Spirit in an upper-bracket quarter-final at The International playoffs, a best-of-three between two sides that both arrived here through the elimination round. Team Spirit were last reported as having the standard five of Yatoro, Larl, Collapse, not me and Rue, while Iron Wing’s roster has been listed as pure, bzm, 33, Ari and Whitemon, which matters because there is no sign of a stand-in disruption on either side.[10][11] The market’s near-even price fits a pairing where both teams have already shown they can win under playoff pressure, but not one with a long direct history to anchor the line; one preview listed this as the first recorded meeting between the teams.[9]
For traders, the main catalysts are whether the scheduled Tuesday-night UTC start is kept and whether either team posts any late roster or technical changes before play begins. The match was set for 20 August at 02:00 UTC, with live listings still pointing to the same BO3 slot in the upper bracket quarter-finals, so any delay would be more likely to shift sentiment than the underlying matchup unless it pushed beyond the market’s settlement window.[1][2][14] Iron Wing’s 2-0 over GamerLegion and Team Spirit’s run through the elimination stage were both decisive enough to support the current 53% yes price, but the lack of a settled head-to-head means recent bracket form and draft readiness should carry more weight than historical comparison.[6][7]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The I… on توقعات كورة
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →