Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Rampage | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
PlayTime’s BO3 with Execration in the Games of the Future playoffs is a live price check on two mid-tier international squads rather than a mismatch, even if the market is currently pinned at 0% YES. The closest comparable data points point both ways: Strafe lists PlayTime at #18 and Execration at #22, with each side winning two of its last five, while earlier February-style head-to-head pages show no sustained recent history between the teams, which limits the value of any direct matchup read.[5][3] Other match pages and betting snapshots have also shown Execration as a live underdog despite a previous BO3 win over PlayTime in January, so recent results have not translated into a stable edge for either roster.[14][17]
The main trading catalysts are line-up confirmation and whether the event stays on schedule. DLTV lists PlayTime as Wits, Abed, jabz, Scofield and elmisho, but also flags roster changes over the past month, while Execration is described as having a stable roster for 110 days, which is usually the cleaner setup in a short playoff series.[9] Strafe’s match page still shows the series as a BO3 in the Round of 1, and the YouTube listings indicate the fixture is/was scheduled for early UTC hours, so any delay, remake or broadcast update matters because the market only settles normally if the match is completed within the permitted window.[5][2] In a field where one side has already played through the bracket and the other arrives with recent roster churn, the highest-impact information will be confirmed starters and whether either team has to use a substitute or play under schedule pressure.[9][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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