Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Match Winner | 80% |
| Game 2 Winner | 62% |
| Game 3 Winner | 61% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 50% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-2.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+2.5) | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 50% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 48% |
| Game 4 Winner | 35% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-2.5) vs PlayTime (+2.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
PlayTime and Yakult Brothers are meeting in the Games of the Future Dota 2 grand final, a best-of-five that is already live and listed from 12:00 UTC, so the market is pricing a match that has begun rather than a pre-match punt. The crowd-implied 33% for PlayTime looks like a modest underdog position, even though the teams arrived with similar momentum: PlayTime swept Team Resilience 2-0 in the semi-finals, while Yakult Brothers progressed 2-1 after a longer series against Rune Eaters.[1][4][8][12]
The current line is best read through the teams’ path to the final, not a deep head-to-head history. In the published playoff bracket, Yakult Brothers had already shown they can survive longer series by edging REKONIX and then Rune Eaters, while PlayTime’s route was cleaner and more one-sided, including a decisive win over GLYPH before the semi-final sweep.[5][6][8] That mix usually keeps a BO5 price from drifting too far in either direction until map one settles, especially when one side has already shown it can close out a best-of-three without a decider and the other has shown more resistance in longer series.[8][12]
The main catalysts for traders are in-match rather than off-stage: map-one momentum, draft adaptation, and whether either team’s game plan still looks intact after the opening two picks. There is no reported suspension, roster change, or injury news in the supplied sources, and the event page still frames the final as the scheduled championship match in Astana, which lowers the chance of an administrative void unless organisers later change the fixture or it is not completed.[4][9][15] If the series is interrupted, the market rules matter: a match not played, tied, or delayed more than seven days without a winner would settle 50-50, but if it starts and a winner is declared it should resolve to that team.[market description]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers (BO5) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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