Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Match Winner | 33% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
REKONIX against Yakult Brothers in the Games of the Future playoffs is a best-of-three with a live market that is already fully priced to REKONIX at 100% YES, which is far firmer than most pre-match esports lines. The underlying form picture is mixed rather than one-sided: one recent match listing puts REKONIX at 1.23 to Yakult Brothers’ 3.83, while another current preview has the teams rated much closer in wider market terms, with REKONIX around 50% and Yakult Brothers around 50% on the series moneyline.[2][4] That spread matters because BO3 playoff series can swing sharply on draft quality, map tempo and side selection, especially when recent form is only modest rather than dominant.
The head-to-head context is also more competitive than a 100% fair price would suggest. Across the recent meetings visible in the results, REKONIX beat Yakult Brothers 2-1 on 28 January 2026, the teams drew 1-1 on 23 March 2026, and a separate match page again shows REKONIX ahead in the direct record.[2][19][14] Line-up data points to familiar cores on both sides, with REKONIX listed around inYourdreaM, Fbz, dalul, Varizh and jikroy, while Yakult Brothers are shown with Lou, Emo, kaka, Tianming and yq in one current match listing, although some pages still reflect older roster variants.[2][13]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the match starts on time and whether the broadcast or bracket pages confirm the same line-up sheet across sources, because these playoff listings have shown minor schedule and roster discrepancies between directories.[1][2][3][8] The market only settles 50-50 if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, so any official bracket change, late start, or completion status update matters more than usual near the settlement window.[4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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