Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine meet Team Resilience in a Games of the Future playoffs best-of-three, with the current market at 100% Yes effectively assuming Yellow Submarine advance. That pricing is much more aggressive than the wider esports read: recent match pages list Team Resilience as the higher-ranked side, with a better short-term record, while Yellow Submarine have been more uneven in their latest results and are coming off a 0–2 loss to Vici Gaming on 1 August[5][9][13].
The historical frame is straightforward: these teams have little or no meaningful head-to-head history, so traders are leaning on form, roster stability and bracket context rather than prior matchup data[5][12]. Comparable prediction pages and bookmaker-style views have treated this as a close series rather than a one-sided spot, with Team Resilience often shaded as the slight favourite and Yellow Submarine still seen as capable of taking maps[9][10][17].
The main catalysts are lineup confirmation, start-time integrity and any bracket knock-on effects from adjacent playoff fixtures. Match listings currently place the series at 08:00 UTC, and multiple live-event pages show it as scheduled rather than delayed, so the key risk to a 100% Yes price is not performance but whether the game starts and finishes inside the settlement rules[1][2][3]. Any late substitution news, technical postponement or a schedule slip beyond seven days would matter more here than marginal form trends, because the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not completed as specified.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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