Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine meet Vici Gaming in a best-of-three at the Games of the Future Group A, with the market already behaving as if the result is live rather than speculative: the underlying match has been played and the recorded score is Vici Gaming 2-0 Yellow Submarine.[1][6] That matters for settlement, because the market description resolves to the named side only if that team wins the match; if the event had been cancelled, tied, or left unresolved beyond the stated window, it would have gone to 50-50 instead.[1]
The recent form lines do not point to a clean mismatch, even before the result is known. Yellow Submarine arrived off a 2-0 win over XctN and a run that also included a 1-2 loss to Spirit.ac in late July, while Vici Gaming had mixed results in the same stretch, beating Nigma 2-0 but losing 0-2 to Falcons only a day earlier.[1][2] A useful comparable frame is that these teams were also described as having no prior head-to-head before this pairing, so the market had little historical matchup data to lean on and had to price recent team-level form and event context instead.[9][11]
For traders, the main catalysts are roster confirmation, scheduling, and whether the series is treated as officially completed within the settlement window. Neither team has had reported suspension or injury issues in the available pre-match coverage, and the pre-series market note also pointed to no major roster alterations.[4][11] The most important dependency is simple: if the organiser’s official bracket and result page confirm the BO3 was completed as listed, the market should settle on the match winner; if there were any disruption, abandonment, or post-window administrative delay, that would change the outcome materially.[1][5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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