Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 74% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine’s BO3 against Execration in Games of the Future Group A is scheduled for 31 July, with multiple trackers listing a 05:00 UTC start, though some local feeds show slightly different converted times. The market’s 100% yes pricing implies the market expects the match to be played and finished normally rather than drifting into a cancellation or no-contest outcome.[1][16][18]
On recent comparable evidence, Yellow Submarine have been the more convincing side in this event cycle, with a reported 2-0 win over Execration already logged by one live-results source from the same tournament context, while both teams also carry mixed recent BO3 form across other fixtures. That kind of prior result matters because these markets are often driven as much by repeat matchup evidence and bracket continuity as by headline rankings alone; Execration’s earlier runs have included wins over weaker opposition but also routine losses, which limits how much a single upset profile can be stretched across a fresh BO3.[5][8][20]
The main trader catalysts are scheduling confirmation, any late roster or stand-in news, and whether the fixture remains live on official or aggregator pages close to the start window. Some listings already flag possible postponement or cancellation states, so the practical risk is not competitive imbalance but whether the match is actually staged and completed before the settlement deadline; if the series is delayed too far or abandoned, the market terms point away from a standard team-winner resolution.[8][13][17]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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