Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
Zero Tenacity and Ilbirs eSports are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within the EPL Masters Play-In Group B on 24 July at 12:00 PM ET. The fixture determines positioning within the play-in bracket, with implications for advancement to the main tournament stage. Zero Tenacity, a European-based roster, has competed in regional qualifiers throughout 2024 with mixed results in tier-two competitions. Ilbirs eSports represents a lesser-documented squad within the competitive Dota 2 circuit, with limited recent tournament visibility at comparable levels.
The 0% implied probability suggests either significant uncertainty regarding match completion or an expectation that one team will not field a roster. EPL Masters play-in events have historically experienced scheduling disruptions and roster availability issues, particularly with European and emerging regional teams managing travel logistics and player commitments across multiple tournaments. The seven-day resolution window provides substantial buffer for rescheduling, though cancellation remains a material risk given the compressed tournament calendar in mid-to-late July.
Traders should monitor official EPL communications for confirmed lineups and any last-minute roster changes through 23 July. Zero Tenacity's recent competitive activity and Ilbirs eSports' tournament participation status warrant verification, as inactive or disbanded rosters occasionally remain listed in bracket structures. Confirmation of both teams' attendance at the venue or online platform hosting the event represents the critical catalyst for market movement away from the current probability assessment.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) … on توقعات كورة
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