Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+1.5) | 100% |
| Game Handicap: GAM (-2.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+2.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 100% |
| Game 4 Winner | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
DetonatioN FocusMe face GAM Esports in a best-of-five LCP group-stage series, and the market has opened with the crowd assigning it a 0% YES chance for DFM. That pricing is consistent with the recent match history: GAM beat DetonatioN FocusMe 2-0 in their 26 July meeting, and multiple results databases show a 5-0 head-to-head record for GAM across their previous five meetings[7][9][11].
The broader form profile also points the same way. Recent match logs show DetonatioN FocusMe have won just one of their last five series, with a lone 2-1 over Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming, while GAM have been steadier in Pacific competition and have already posted wins over DFM earlier in the split[7][13][18]. Several pre-match listings also describe GAM as the clear regional favourite, citing stronger results against comparable opposition and a cleaner overall record in the matchup[6][8].
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: the confirmed starting line-ups, whether either team changes its usual five, and whether the series begins on schedule or is disrupted, because the settlement rules fall back to 50-50 if the match is not played, is tied, or is delayed too far beyond the scheduled date. The live match pages and highlight listings suggest the fixture is part of the current LCP Split 3 Swiss-stage slate, so any late schedule update from the organiser or a roster announcement close to broadcast would matter more than general form already does[1][3][19].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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