Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
BNK FEARX’s match with HANJIN BRION has already produced the kind of head-to-head profile that makes a 0% crowd price look too extreme. In their most recent LCK meeting, HANJIN BRION won 2-0 in the Rounds 1-2 stage, but the broader series history still leans BNK FEARX, with one matchup tracker putting the all-time record at 10 BNK FEARX wins to 3 for HANJIN BRION across 13 meetings.[14] [10] That split matters because these teams have repeatedly traded results in BO3 play: BNK FEARX took the LCK Cup 2026 series 2-1, while HANJIN BRION has also shown it can punish BNK FEARX in cleaner two-map wins.[5] [9]
The most relevant catalysts are team-sheet and schedule confirmation rather than late-season narrative. Match trackers currently list the fixture as live on 7 August 2026, which suggests the market is being priced against a scheduled series rather than a cancellation risk, but any delay, venue change, or official start-time adjustment would matter because the market only resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or pushed more than seven days.[2] [3] [4] Recent results also point to a competitive state rather than a mismatch: one recent game log shows HANJIN BRION defeating BNK FEARX in a 39-minute map in the current round set, which reinforces that the underdog has been capable of taking at least individual games in this pairing.[1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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