Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
LOS against RED Canids is a CBLOL Regular Season best-of-three, and the market’s 100% YES pricing implies the board is treating LOS as a near-certain winner. That is hard to square with the recent head-to-head split: LOS swept RED Canids 3-0 twice in late May and mid-June, but RED Canids also beat LOS 2-0 in the earlier split on 25 April, so the matchup has not been one-way over the full season.[1][2][18]
The broader form still favours LOS. Bo3.gg’s current match notes say LOS have a 59% win rate over the last year and 57% over the last six months, versus a 63% overall win rate for RED Canids, while RED Canids’ recent run included three straight 2-0 series wins in June before the team’s more recent setback against Vivo Keyd Stars.[1][10][11] That combination usually matters more in a BO3 than a single-map sample, because it points to draft stability and repeatable series play, not just one-off upsets.[1][10]
The main catalyst to watch is whether either team confirms a last-minute roster change or schedule disruption, because a 100% probability leaves little room for execution risk and any lineup or timing news would matter disproportionately. The available pre-match pages do not indicate injuries or suspensions, so the practical trading focus is on official match status, starting line-ups, and any late broadcast or calendar changes that could affect whether the series is played cleanly inside the settlement window.[1][4][5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: LOS vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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