Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
66% | 34% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
66% | 34% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Game 2 Winner | 55% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Match Winner | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 30% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Game 1 Winner | 23% |
Market context
Onion Team face BRUTE in a best-of-three League of Legends fixture within the Hitpoint Masters regular season on 19 August 2026. The match carries a 24% implied probability for Onion Team victory, suggesting the market views BRUTE as clear favourites in this encounter.
The current odds reflect a substantial gap in perceived strength between the two rosters. Hitpoint Masters fixtures typically involve established regional competition where roster stability and recent tournament performance heavily influence outcomes. Teams entering such matchups with winning streaks or recent playoff appearances command significantly higher backing than those rebuilding or in form slumps. The 76-point gap between the implied probabilities suggests traders are pricing in either a notable disparity in recent results, head-to-head history favouring BRUTE, or structural advantages in the current meta that benefit their composition or playstyle. Historical precedent in regional League competitions shows that such wide probability gaps often reflect concrete factors—recent LAN performances, roster changes, or coaching adjustments—rather than speculation alone.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding player availability and any roster adjustments up to the 19 August fixture. Suspension notices, injury reports, or last-minute substitutions can shift expected performance substantially, particularly in best-of-three formats where individual player form becomes magnified across multiple games. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 19 August; any postponement must be rescheduled by 2 September 2026 at 23:59 ET. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled and final team lineups represent the primary catalysts affecting the probability before resolution.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: Onion Team vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: LoL: Onion Team vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Mast… on توقعات كورة
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