توقع: LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Shopify Rebellion meet Disguised in an LCS regular-season best-of-three, and the market’s 100% implied probability reflects how one-sided this pairing has looked recently. Shopify beat Disguised 2-0 in their most recent meeting on 16 May 2026, ending a five-match losing streak at the same time, with Contractz posting the standout series and Shopify closing both games cleanly. [1][3][14]

The broader head-to-head still leans heavily towards Shopify. Across the recent meetings listed in matchup databases, Shopify have won the last three series against Disguised, including a 2-1 win in August 2025 and a 2-0 sweep in May 2026, with a 5-1 map edge over that span. That sort of repeated dominance matters in a BO3, because it suggests Shopify have found the right drafts and mid-game patterns for this opponent rather than just landing one isolated result. [4][5][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are roster and schedule confirmation, because the market only pays out on the match actually being played and completed within the settlement rules. The listed rosters for the summer split remain Shopify’s Fudge, Contractz, Zinie, Bvoy and Ceos against Disguised’s Srtty, KryRa, Callme, Sajed and Lyonz, so any late substitution or official postponement would be the key line-moving factor rather than the matchup itself. If the series were delayed beyond seven days from the scheduled date, or not played at all, it would resolve 50-50 under the market rules. [11][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.