Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-8.5) vs NRG (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Leviatán Esports and NRG meet in a VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha best-of-three, with the market currently pricing a Leviatán win at 0% despite both sides being alive in the standings. The strongest frame for reading that number is their recent group form rather than a clean head-to-head edge: Riot’s standings page has NRG and Leviatán both listed on 2W-0L in Group Alpha, while Liquipedia’s 2025 Stage 2 table shows Leviatán finishing above NRG in that earlier cycle, but that is a weak comparator for a new season with potentially different line-ups and map pools.[2][1]
For traders, the key catalysts are roster confirmation, map veto timing, and whether either team arrives with any late schedule changes or substitution notices. Current tournament listings show the match attached to the regular-season Stage 2 window, and recent results coverage has already put both teams into the top bracket of the group, which makes a surprise pre-match line move more likely to come from team news than from standings alone.[2][3][4] If there is no official player change or rescheduling update, the market should be read primarily through current form and the simple fact that both teams have already banked early wins in Alpha, rather than through any obvious injury or suspension angle.[2][14]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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