Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 68% |
| October 31, 2026 | 39% |
| September 30, 2026 | 9% |
| September 15, 2026 | 2% |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% |
| July 31, 2026 | 0% |
Market context
Anthropic is still private, but it has taken the formal first step towards a flotation by confidentially filing a draft S-1 with the SEC on 1 June 2026. Since then, reporting has pointed to a possible public debut as soon as October, while other coverage says executives have discussed a fourth-quarter 2026 offering; no official listing date has been announced, and a confidential filing does not bind the company to one. [2][6][9]
For market context, the closest read-through is that large, highly valued private companies can move from filing to trading within a few months, but the timeline is still driven by disclosure and regulator sign-off rather than sentiment alone. Anthropic’s recent $965 billion private valuation, raised in a May 2026 financing round, frames how ambitious the eventual pricing could be, yet the market will only have a clearer signal once a public prospectus appears and the exchange venue is confirmed. [5][10][13]
Traders should watch for a public S-1 amendment, the start of the roadshow, and any exchange listing notice or SEC effectiveness filing, because those are the milestones that usually precede first trading. The current gap between a confidential filing and an actual debut also leaves room for slippage if market conditions weaken or the company elects to wait beyond the earliest reported autumn window. [2][8][9][15]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Anthropic IPO by 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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