توقع: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private valuation must reach the listed threshold on Nasdaq Private Market data before 31 December 2026 to trigger a “Yes” resolution, with the current crowd-implied probability at 12% for the event. Nasdaq Private Market estimates Anthropic’s share price at $675.76 as of 2 July 2026, implying a valuation of roughly $1.14 trillion in July 2026, already 18% above its Series H-1 round at $965 billion [1][2].

Historical precedent shows secondary-market prints can outpace headline financing rounds by months; in 2025, Anthropic delivered a 249% share-price surge on Tape D® data, far outperforming large-cap peers [3]. Comparable prediction markets have already priced Anthropic above OpenAI on NPM metrics, with Polymarket assigning an 83% probability that Anthropic’s NPM valuation exceeds OpenAI’s by June 2026, reflecting a recent secondary-market surge that pushed Anthropic to $936 billion against OpenAI’s $822 billion [5].

Traders should monitor daily NPM updates at 1:00 PM ET for the next trading day, as resolution hinges on these gated prints rather than financing announcements. A $65 billion raise in May 2026 lifted the post-money valuation to $965 billion, but the NPM line has continued climbing toward $1 trillion and beyond, with secondary pricing already near $992 billion by late May [6][8]. The key catalyst is whether NPM publishes a print at or above the market’s threshold before year-end, with no formal confirmation of a $1 trillion round yet [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.