توقع: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

West Texas Intermediate is trading in the low 80s, with one live market snapshot showing 81.83 dollars a barrel on the morning of 4 August and another later feed showing 90.24 dollars on 25 July, which puts the contract comfortably above the low-80s threshold implied by many day-ahead pricing markets.[2][1] Even so, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the strike is set well above the recent spot range rather than reflecting a view on the direction of the session itself.[7][8]

The nearest comparable guide is the August 2026 futures tape: August WTI settled up only 0.16% in one recent session, a sign that the market has been moving, but not in a straight line, even after a sharp prior drop.[8] Over the past month, quoted levels have spanned the mid-70s to low-90s across different snapshots, so the key reference for August 4 is whether the day’s trade can hold above the market’s recent upper band rather than simply recover intraday losses.[9][1] That kind of gap matters because these “closes above” contracts are decided on the final settlement print, not on the highest tick of the session.[8][11]

The main catalysts are the front-month settlement path, broader energy sentiment, and any fresh supply headlines before the close, particularly if they shift the cash-futures spread or push WTI away from the mid-80s zone.[4][11] Traders will also watch for any late-session inventory, OPEC+, or macro data headlines that can reprice the last hour, since the contract has already shown the ability to swing several dollars within a short window.[2][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.