توقع: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has not been close to a true traffic blackout in the recent record, but it has repeatedly swung to near-standstill conditions when Iran–US hostilities intensified. Reuters reported just three commodity vessels crossing on 17 July, the fewest daily transits since May, while earlier Reuters and CNN coverage showed traffic falling to less than 10% of normal and, in some stretches, averaging only a handful of vessels per day rather than the roughly 100-plus seen before the conflict[9][2][4]. IMF PortWatch data cited by Statista shows the route was already running at about six ships a day between March and late May, which frames a 0 reading as an extreme outlier rather than a normal stress outcome[12].

For the market to settle Yes, IMF PortWatch must publish a daily “Arrivals of Ships” figure of zero for at least one date before the window closes, so traders should focus on whether traffic is merely depressed or actually absent in the dataset[12]. The key catalysts are any renewed military escalation, formal closures or safety advisories, and whether shipping continues via the southern Omani corridor or northern Iranian-controlled route, both of which have kept some vessels moving despite the risk[17]. Reuters has also shown that even after fresh strikes, traffic can rebound quickly when ceasefire or de-escalation signals emerge, as seen in late June when tankers resumed sailing after a brief shut-off period[3][13].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.