توقع: Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Farsi Island is a tiny Iranian island in the Persian Gulf and has long been treated as part of Iran’s maritime security perimeter, including references to an IRGC naval base on the island.[1][3] A 1968 treaty also records mutual recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Farsi, which makes any change in control a high-bar event rather than a routine territorial dispute.[4]

That is why the market’s 1% implied probability looks consistent with the underlying status quo: the island is remote, militarily sensitive and already embedded in Iran’s coastal defence posture.[3][5][7] Comparable cases in the Gulf have tended to involve formal interstate agreements or prolonged occupation, not brief incidents at sea; the 2016 detention of US sailors near Farsi showed how quickly local encounters can escalate, but it did not alter control of the island.[6]

For traders, the main catalysts are any explicit claims of sovereignty transfer, loss of Iranian garrisoning, or internationally backed administration on the island. Absent that, watch for regional war escalation, shipping-security developments in the central Gulf, or changes in Iranian naval deployments around the island; these can raise tension without meeting the settlement threshold.[5][7][8] The decisive signal would be a verified handover or sustained removal of Iranian primary governmental or military control before the August 2026 deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.