توقع: Total Internet Blackout in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has repeatedly imposed nationwide or near-nationwide internet cuts when protests or security crises escalate, and the market’s 0% crowd price reflects that a *total* blackout is possible but still a high-threshold event under Cloudflare’s definition. The clearest precedents are November 2019, when authorities ordered a week-long shutdown during fuel protests, and January 2026, when protests prompted a total blackout that global monitors described as one of the most complete and longest ever recorded in Iran.[6][11][16]

The bigger comparison for traders is that Iran does not usually need a formal, permanently total outage for headlines to call it a shutdown; a short, severe drop can qualify if traffic falls to 1.0% or less of the recent four-week peak for six straight hours. That means the key reading is not just whether access is restricted, but whether operators are instructed to suppress mobile and fixed networks at the same time, as happened in past protest waves and during the 2026 wartime disruption.[1][10][13]

What matters next is any renewed unrest, military escalation, or government security directive that could trigger a coordinated disconnect. The market can move quickly if official services, state media, or telecom operators announce maintenance, “security” restrictions, or selective regional throttling, because prior Iranian shutdowns have started with partial degradation before reaching near-zero global traffic.[7][12][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Total Internet Blackout in Iran by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.