توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States and Iran signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding on 17 June 2026, halting hostilities and opening the Strait of Hormuz, but explicitly deferred a final nuclear agreement to a 60-day negotiation window that began in Switzerland. This interim pact, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, grants UN inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites while suspending key US sanctions, yet leaves uranium enrichment levels and stockpile status unresolved for further talks [2][4][5]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the market’s assessment that the deadline of 31 August 2026 falls before the 60-day negotiation period (extendable by mutual consent) can realistically conclude a comprehensive, mutually signed diplomatic instrument on nuclear matters [2][5].

Historically, comparable cases such as the 2015 JCPOA took over a year of intensive negotiation after initial frameworks were agreed, and the 2018 US withdrawal underscored how fragile interim deals become without ironclad final signatures [15]. The 2026 MoU mirrors past patterns where technical talks on shipping and ceasefire precede, rather than replace, nuclear commitments; no precedent exists for a final nuclear deal being signed within 60 days of a preliminary ceasefire framework when core issues like enrichment caps remain open [2][9]. Traders should watch for announcements on the 60-day window’s extension, the outcome of technical talks in Doha and Geneva, and any US Treasury waiver decisions tied to inspection compliance [4][11]. Recent reports indicate talks concluded in Doha on 1 July with no progress toward a lasting peace, suggesting the nuclear component remains a significant hurdle [11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.