توقع: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key question is whether Washington and Tehran will turn the existing Hormuz framework into a fresh, formal diplomatic agreement before the deadline. The market currently prices a meaningful chance of that outcome, but the latest reporting shows the underlying talks are still volatile: Reuters said on 4 August that Trump described talks as under way while Iran denied that any negotiations were being held or planned, with renewed shipping attacks in the strait underlining the security risk.[1]

The best historical guide is the June memorandum of understanding, which already covered reopening the strait, easing some financial constraints and setting up further technical talks, but was described as an initial framework rather than a final settlement.[7][11][16] Reuters also reported on 1 July that indirect talks in Doha focused on maritime traffic and incentives rather than harder political issues, while a later Reuters piece said discussions had not made clear progress towards a lasting peace.[2] That background matters because a yes outcome here likely needs more than implementation of the June deal; it needs an additional official instrument that clearly sets Hormuz obligations for both sides.[7][17]

Traders should watch for any jointly announced text, signing ceremony or mediated statement, especially from Qatar, Oman or other intermediaries, since those have been central in past rounds.[1][6][14] The main catalyst risk cuts both ways: positive headlines about final-stage talks, such as Iran’s 2 August remarks to Al Jazeera that negotiations with Oman were nearing completion, versus denials from Iranian officials that the Strait will return to its pre-war status.[6] Any further attack on shipping, or a breakdown in the ceasefire and maritime traffic arrangements, would make a qualifying agreement less likely before 31 August.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.