توقع: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether the United States and Iran can sustain a continuous 14-day pause in qualifying military action following the collapse of their June 2026 ceasefire. A two-week truce was previously brokered with Pakistani help in June, but it fractured within hours after President Trump posted threatening rhetoric on Truth Social, fueling immediate doubts about durability [5]. Renewed strikes reported by the Associated Press on 9 July 2026 have since rendered the truce increasingly unstable, with both sides resuming attacks across the Gulf and threatening the agreement’s survival [8]. Historically, such short pauses in high-intensity conflicts between these powers have rarely held without a formal settlement framework, and the current 5% crowd-implied probability reflects this fragility amid ongoing hostilities since Operation Epic Fury began on 28 February 2026 [2][3].

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: any new US airstrike announcements, Iranian missile or drone launches targeting US bases or allies, and diplomatic signals from Pakistan or Qatar regarding renewed mediation. The US House’s recent passage of a War Powers Resolution aims to curb escalation until Congress authorises hostilities, though it faces likely Senate rejection and a presidential veto [1]. Meanwhile, the US Central Command has lifted reciprocal shipping restrictions and Iran has committed to restoring commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, yet these gains remain precarious if military actions resume [5]. With two US aircraft carriers still deployed to the region and THAAD systems heavily committed, the military posture suggests readiness for rapid escalation rather than sustained de-escalation [12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.