توقع: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to single digits following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites in late February, with traffic now at roughly 5% of the pre-crisis baseline of 93 daily vessels. IMF PortWatch recorded only 10 transits on 12 July and 25 on 4 July, while the 7-day moving average remains below 10, far short of the 60-vessel threshold often cited as a return to normalcy. Historical precedent shows that even brief reopenings, such as the two-week ceasefire starting 8 April, failed to sustain throughput, and the current 4% YES probability correctly reflects the extreme Strait Crisis Stress Index of 91/100 and the withdrawal of cover by six P&I clubs.

Traders must monitor announcements regarding a peace deal between Washington and Tehran, as shipping executives explicitly await such an agreement to restore confidence in the route. Recent escalations, including Washington’s weekend strikes and Tehran’s retaliatory targeting of a US base, have kept tensions high, with four outbound tankers reversing course on radio warnings from Iran’s IRGC even after the 17 June ceasefire. The critical dependency is whether Iran will lift its limited controlled route restrictions and the $2 million fee per ship that has further suppressed commercial traffic, as noted in reports from early March 2026. Without a definitive security guarantee, the likelihood of any day reaching the required transit count remains negligible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.