توقع: Iran full airspace closure by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran’s airspace remains partially open but heavily restricted, with only the eastern sector of the Tehran FIR (OIIX) accessible to overflights as of mid-July 2026, while the central and western zones stay closed to international transit due to escalating security fears following late-June strikes [1][5]. This partial reopening does not meet the market’s threshold for a “general closure,” which requires suspension across all of Iran or the entire Tehran FIR.

Historically, Iran has executed full airspace closures only during acute military crises: a five-hour shutdown in January 2026 amid US tension spikes [3], and a complete closure on 13 June 2026 after Israeli airstrikes triggered retaliatory missile fire [5]. The most severe precedent occurred in February 2026, when US and Israeli strikes forced the largest simultaneous airspace closure in aviation history, shutting eight countries overnight and cancelling over 46,000 flights [10]. These episodes were short-lived and tied to immediate conflict triggers, not sustained policy shifts.

Traders should monitor NOTAM updates from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, especially any announcements extending or lifting the current western/central restrictions [5]. Key catalysts include renewed Israeli or US military action, escalation in the US-Iran protest crackdown, or violations of the recently brokered ceasefire [5]. A full closure would likely follow an explicit NOTAM prohibiting all civil operations across OIIX, similar to the February 2026 event [10]. As of 13 July, risk is easing but remains elevated, with commercial traffic resuming gradually [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Iran full airspace closure by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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