توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran’s informal blockade, triggered by military actions in late February 2026, has kept Strait of Hormuz transit calls at less than 10% of typical volumes, with daily averages hovering near 20–30 vessels rather than the pre-war norm of nearly 60[1][2]. Even after the June 17 U.S.–Iran deal that lifted the American naval blockade and promised toll-free passage for 60 days, traffic rebounded only partially: 25 ships crossed on key days, including 14 tankers, but analysts warn recovery remains fragile and unpredictable[5][10]. Historical patterns show that post-ceasefire resurgences in the strait have been slow, often taking months to approach pre-conflict levels, and recent spikes have been quickly undermined by renewed drone strikes or mine-clearing delays[5][7].

Traders should monitor the July 19 deadline for full U.S. blockade removal and Iran’s compliance with the 60-day toll-free window, as failure to clear mines or renewed attacks could stall progress[12]. The IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average must hit 60 for the market to resolve YES, a threshold not seen since February; recent data shows averages around 39 over seven days in late March, with only marginal improvement in June[3][10]. A second catalyst is the status of UN evacuation plans and cargo ship safety: a recent attack on a Panama-flagged tanker, the Kiku, caused immediate traffic drops from 38 to 22 vessels in a single day, underscoring how quickly confidence can erode[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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