توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still below normal after the 2026 security shock, and the market needs IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of ship arrivals to print at least 60 for a “Yes” before 30 September 2026. Recent reporting shows how far traffic has fallen from pre-crisis norms: Reuters said flows were under 10% of typical volumes in April, while CNN and CNBC described only a handful of crossings on several days in April, June and early July. That means the market is not asking for a modest recovery, but for a return to something close to the old baseline. [8][2][3][4]

Comparable episodes suggest the path back can be uneven even after headline de-escalation. After the April ceasefire, traffic briefly improved, but vessels still moved at a trickle and analysts warned that even a persistent truce might only support 10-15 passages a day in the near term. Reuters also noted that three supertankers and other vessels had recently been able to transit, yet the broader flow remained far below pre-war levels, which helps explain why the crowd price is still only 22% YES. [6][11][5]

The main catalysts are political and operational rather than demand-driven: any fresh U.S.-Iran or Iran-Israel flare-up, changes to maritime security advisories, and whether carriers keep rerouting via the Cape rather than re-entering Hormuz. Reuters reported on 23 June that talks on navigation management were continuing and that an evacuation plan for stranded vessels was underway, which would matter because IMF Portwatch’s metric only counts reported transits and needs sustained volume, not one-off sailings, to reach 60 on the 7-day average. [11][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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