توقع: Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has already become a live military and shipping flashpoint, so the market is really asking which states will move from rhetoric to an actual naval transit before the August 2026 cut-off. The benchmark case is the U.S. and Israel’s air war against Iran in February, after which shipping through the strait was “largely blocked” and the UK announced a defensive deployment including drones, fighter aircraft and a Royal Navy warship in May[1]. That matters because an outcome here needs a documented passage by a country’s warship or military support vessel, not just political backing or escort talk.

For traders, the key catalyst is whether any government formally confirms a transit, or whether credible reporting identifies a named vessel crossing the strait under national command. Reuters reported on 16 July that fewer vessels were travelling through Hormuz as tensions continued, which underlines how narrow the window remains for a clean, confirmable warship passage[10]. Earlier reporting suggested Russia, Iran and China had sent warships for joint drills in the area, while European states were “ready to” send ships only if a ceasefire held, but those were separate from a simple, verified transit through the strait itself[3][4]. The crowd’s 8% YES implies the market sees the bar for confirmation as high and the list of plausible entrants as limited, despite repeated calls for multinational naval participation[2][9][20].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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