توقع: Fed Decision in July?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting will determine whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate (currently 3.75%) changes by any basis points, with traders pricing in a 0% chance of a cut and only a modest probability of a hike. Current market data from CME FedWatch shows just a 10% implied chance of a 25-basis-point increase at this meeting, down sharply from 35% earlier in July as inflation data cooled slightly [6].

Historically, when the FOMC has held rates steady amid persistent inflation above 2%—as seen with core PCE at 3.4% in May and CPI at 4.2% annually—the median policymaker projection has often shifted toward hikes later in the year rather than immediate action [1][2]. The June dot plot under new Chair Kevin Warsh eliminated forecasts for any 2026 cut and now points to a median end-2026 rate of 3.8%, suggesting at least one hike is expected before year-end, though likely not in July [2][12].

Traders should monitor the July 29 rate decision announcement at 2:00 PM ET and Chair Warsh’s 2:30 PM ET press conference for any shift in tone regarding inflation persistence or geopolitical risks, particularly renewed Middle East tensions that have previously spiked rate-hike odds [2][3]. The upcoming CPI release and core PCE data in the weeks before the meeting will be critical catalysts, as even modest cooling could further reduce hike expectations, while any upside surprise could revive the 25% probability of a quarter-point rise seen in early July [6][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Fed Decision in July?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.