توقع: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Platform comparison

Market context

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner on Friday, 9 October, with the ceremony following in Oslo on 10 December. Approximately 287 candidates are under evaluation, including U.S. President Donald Trump, who is anticipated to be among the nominees despite the prize’s traditional focus on conflict resolution and disarmament rather than political office alone[4]. The committee maintains strict confidentiality regarding nominations until the announcement, meaning no official shortlist exists publicly at this stage.

Historically, the 5% crowd-implied probability aligns with cases where high-profile political figures are nominated but rarely win without a concrete, recent peace breakthrough. Recent laureates like the International Court of Justice and the Committee to Protect Journalists reflect a trend toward institutional or collective awards over individual political leaders[2]. Trump’s inclusion in the nominee pool does not guarantee selection, as the committee has previously excluded sitting heads of state lacking verifiable peace accords, making the current odds a realistic reflection of that structural barrier.

Traders should monitor the official press release from the Norwegian Nobel Committee on 9 October, as the timing and wording will confirm the winner instantly[1]. Secondary catalysts include any sudden diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East or Ukraine between now and October, which could shift momentum toward candidates like Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Benjamin Netanyahu. Reuters reported Trump’s likely nomination in April, but no further updates on his specific peace initiatives have emerged since, leaving the market vulnerable to sudden news spikes before the announcement[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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