توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-war volumes despite a June agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the route, with daily transits hovering around 25 vessels rather than the typical 60. The conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on 28 February, triggered a 70% drop in movement and left dozens of ships stranded or rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope [6][12]. While a preliminary deal lifted the US naval blockade and promised toll-free passage for 60 days, maritime analysts warn that full normalization could take months due to lingering mine-clearing operations and elevated insurance premiums [5][12].

Traders should monitor the 19 July deadline for the complete US blockade lift and any subsequent data from IMF Portwatch or Kpler confirming sustained daily averages above 60. Recent reports indicate traffic has ticked up to 25 ships on peak days, yet remains unpredictable and far from pre-conflict levels [5][10]. The key dependency is whether Iran clears remaining mines and maintains safe passage without sporadic drone attacks, which have previously caused immediate declines, such as the drop from 38 to 22 vessels following strikes in late June [8]. A sustained seven-day average above 60 by year-end hinges on consistent de-escalation and the removal of technical barriers currently delaying full restoration [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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