توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed, averaging roughly 40 vessels daily in June 2026, far below the pre-war norm of 130 and the market’s 60-vessel threshold for “normal” operation [8][10]. Historical patterns since the February 28 conflict show that even after the April 8 ceasefire and subsequent US–Iran preliminary agreement, transit numbers rebounded only tentatively, with daily counts fluctuating between 11 and 25 ships rather than sustaining a 7-day average above 60 [6][10]. The 0% implied probability reflects this persistent gap: despite a US naval blockade lift and Iran’s commitment to reopen the strait, shipping firms remain cautious due to unresolved permission ambiguities, lingering mine-clearing delays, and a 20% global supply disruption that has anchored hundreds of tankers in the Gulf [8][9].

Key catalysts for traders include the expiry of the 60-day negotiation phase from the April deal, which ends in mid-June and could trigger renewed fees or restrictions if no broader peace is reached [10]. Watch for weekly IMF Portwatch or Kpler transit reports—particularly any sustained spike above 50 daily crossings—and announcements on mine clearance progress or IRGC passage approvals, as these directly determine whether the 7-day moving average can climb from its current 5–8 range to 60 [5][7]. A recent Bloomberg report noted weekly transits hitting their highest since the war began in early April, yet that peak still fell short of the required threshold, underscoring the fragility of any recovery [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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