توقع: Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump’s removal from the presidency before 2027 hinges on whether Congress can secure a two-thirds Senate majority to convict on impeachment charges, a threshold no president has ever met. Historically, only three U.S. presidents have been impeached by the House: Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Trump himself, all acquitted by the Senate [1][4][6]. Trump was impeached twice—first in 2019 on abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and again in 2021 for incitement of insurrection following the January 6 Capitol riot—but acquitted on all counts in both trials [1][2]. Even with his 2024 felony conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records, no constitutional mechanism has yet forced a sitting president out via criminal proceedings alone [3].

Traders should monitor the composition of the 2026 Senate, particularly whether Republicans retain enough seats to block a two-thirds vote, and any new impeachment articles passed by the House. A catalyst could be a Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s legal cases that triggers congressional action, or a shift in Republican leadership stance amid ongoing investigations. Recent reporting notes that impeachment remains a partisan tool, with conviction unlikely without significant bipartisan support, which currently appears absent [5]. Watch for House floor votes on new articles and Senate committee hearings, as these signal whether removal efforts are gaining traction beyond symbolic gestures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Trump out as President before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.