توقع: Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the January 2026 US military operation “Absolute Resolve,” which captured Nicolás Maduro and removed him from power, leading to his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, being sworn in as interim president. Maduro remains in federal custody in Brooklyn facing narco-terrorism charges, while Rodríguez now operates the state apparatus with military backing and has begun signing agreements with US firms to rebuild Venezuela’s infrastructure.

Historically, interim leaders in Latin America rarely retain power beyond their initial appointment window unless a formal election or constitutional transition occurs. Rodríguez’s 90-day term, extended by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, has already expired without a legislative vote to prolong it, yet she continues serving de facto. Comparable cases, such as Juan Guaidó’s 2019 interim declaration, show that without broad institutional consolidation or international recognition beyond the US, interim status often collapses before year-end, leaving the market’s 0% YES probability on Maduro plausible given his physical absence and legal incapacity.

Traders should monitor whether Venezuela’s legislature votes to extend Rodríguez’s term, any announcement of a presidential election schedule, and statements from the Supreme Tribunal regarding Maduro’s legal status. Recent reports confirm Rodríguez remains acting president despite the expired deadline, but uncertainty persists over her long-term legitimacy [7]. A key catalyst will be Trump administration policy shifts on Venezuela’s governance, as the US currently asserts control over the country’s oil and political direction [4][13].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Venezuela leader end of 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.