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توقع: Who will Trump speak to in July?

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Who will Trump speak to in July?" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 100% Mohammed bin Salman 100% Vladimir Putin 100% Keir Starmer 100% Volume: $275K Liquidity: $186K Closes: 31 Jul 2026
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توقع: Who will Trump speak to in July?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Volodymyr Zelenskyy100%
Mohammed bin Salman100%
Vladimir Putin100%
Keir Starmer100%
Ahmed al-Sharaa100%
Mark Rutte100%
Friedrich Merz100%
Mark Carney100%
Andy Burnham100%
Emmanuel Macron61%
Ursula von der Leyen33%
Lula da Silva7%
Elon Musk4%
Nicolás Maduro1%
Reza Pahlavi1%
Kim Jong Un1%
Xi Jinping1%
Maria Corina Machado1%
Masoud Pezeshkian1%
Pope Leo XIV1%
Miguel Díaz-Canel1%
Yoon Suk Yeol0%
Mojtaba Khamenei0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for توقع: Who will Trump speak to in July?. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verba…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Who will Trump speak to in July?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Related Topics

Trump Prediction Markets