توقع: Iran leader end of 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the succession crisis following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, which installed his son Mojtaba as the third supreme leader but left the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the de facto ruler exercising primary governing authority[1][4]. Historical precedent shows that formal titles in Iran often diverge from actual power; while Mojtaba holds the constitutional head of state role, analysts assess he lacks the capacity for critical decisions, serving instead as a figurehead while the IRGC controls the armed forces and core executive functions[4]. This structural fragility explains the low 7% market probability that Mojtaba will be the individual de facto holding power by end-2026, as the IRGC has already consolidated control over key state functions and sidelined the president[1].

Traders must monitor Mojtaba Khamenei’s first public appearances and any IRGC statements clarifying the chain of command, as his continued invisibility suggests the military remains the true decision-maker[13]. The International Crisis Group notes the system uses Mojtaba primarily for final approval while negotiators operate under his name, meaning a shift in de facto control could occur if the IRGC formally declares a new governing arrangement or if internal power struggles within the leadership intensify[4]. Recent reporting from April 2026 confirms the IRGC is now the de facto ruler, taking control of key state functions, making this the primary catalyst for the market’s resolution[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Iran leader end of 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.