توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, operating at a tiny fraction of pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing 2026 Iran war involving US and Israeli strikes. Current daily transits have fallen from over 100 ships to fewer than 10, with the 7-day moving average estimated between 5 and 8 vessels, far below the 60 required for this market to resolve “Yes”[2][5]. Historical data shows that even after a brief reopening on 21 April 2026, the strait closed again within a day, and a subsequent US-Iran memorandum of agreement on 17 June has not yet triggered broad recovery[3][8]. Since the ceasefire on 8 April, only 45 ships have passed, confirming that traffic has diminished by over 95 percent compared to the pre-war average of roughly 100 vessels daily[6].

The primary catalyst for traders is the US naval blockade lift deadline of 19 July, mandated by the June 17 memorandum, which Iran must reciprocate by restoring traffic to pre-war levels within the same window[10]. However, ambiguity persists regarding which authorities grant permission for transit, and significant hazards remain, including 22 reported attacks on vessels since the conflict began[6][10]. Recent data from Kpler indicates daily crossings have stabilized between 30 and 60, averaging 40 vessels, yet this remains well short of the 60-day threshold needed[9]. With the 7-day average currently at 5–8 ships, traffic would need to roughly double and sustain that level for several days to hit the target, a scenario unlikely given the 1% crowd-implied probability and the strait’s current closed status[7][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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