Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 80% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 13% |
| María Corina Machado | 3% |
| No Head of State | 2% |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 1% |
| Edmundo González | 0% |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0% |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0% |
| Donald Trump | 0% |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0% |
| Marco Rubio | 0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% |
| Evan Pettus | 0% |
| Frank Donovan | 0% |
| Dan Caine | 0% |
| Richard Grenell | 0% |
| Leader 1 | 0% |
| Leader 2 | 0% |
| Leader 3 | 0% |
| Leader 4 | 0% |
| Leader 5 | 0% |
| Leader 6 | 0% |
| Leader 7 | 0% |
| Leader 8 | 0% |
| Leader 9 | 0% |
| Leader 10 | 0% |
| Leader 11 | 0% |
| Leader 12 | 0% |
| Leader 13 | 0% |
| Leader 14 | 0% |
| Leader 15 | 0% |
| Leader 16 | 0% |
| Leader 17 | 0% |
| Leader 18 | 0% |
| Leader 19 | 0% |
| Leader 20 | 0% |
| Leader 21 | 0% |
| Leader 22 | 0% |
| Leader 23 | 0% |
| Leader 24 | 0% |
| Leader 25 | 0% |
| Leader 26 | 0% |
| Leader 27 | 0% |
| Leader 28 | 0% |
| Leader 29 | 0% |
| Leader 30 | 0% |
| Leader 31 | 0% |
| Leader 32 | 0% |
| Leader 33 | 0% |
| Leader 34 | 0% |
| Leader 35 | 0% |
| Leader 36 | 0% |
| Leader 37 | 0% |
| Leader 38 | 0% |
| Leader 39 | 0% |
| Leader 40 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: venezuela leader end of 2026? stands at 80% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "offic…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Venezuela leader end of 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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