توقع: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is about how many earthquakes of **magnitude 6.5 or higher** USGS records worldwide during 3–9 August 2026, and the current **96%** crowd price implies traders think at least one qualifying quake is already in the frame or likely to be logged before the settlement cut-off. USGS is the stated resolution source, and the market can remain open if a substantial quake has occurred but has not yet appeared in the USGS search results by the later contingency date.[1][6]

Recent comparables point to a year with repeated mid-to-upper sixes rather than a single isolated shock. In 2026, public earthquake catalogues show multiple M6.5+ events, including a June 25 M6.9 near Honshu, a May 25 M6.8 in northern Chile, and a June 8 offshore Mindanao M7.8 that generated thousands of aftershocks, including at least two M6.5 events.[3][4][12] That pattern matters because a one-week count can turn quickly if a major plate-boundary rupture is followed by sizeable aftershocks, even though many days still pass with no M6.5+ event at all.[12][5]

For traders, the key catalyst is the live USGS catalogue: late entries, magnitude revisions, and event reclassification can change whether a quake qualifies inside the window.[6][8] The closest recent context is that monitoring services reported no M6 or higher quakes in the 24 hours ending 9 August, alongside a 5.6 near Japan as the largest listed event, so the market is leaning on whether USGS posts a qualifying event before the window closes or adds one retroactively.[5][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.