توقع: World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has concluded with Spain crowned champions, and the tournament’s disciplinary records are now final. The Netherlands have been officially confirmed as the winners of the FIFA Fair Play Award, having received only three yellow cards and no red cards across their four matches before elimination in the Round of 32 against Morocco[2][3]. This outcome resolves the prediction market immediately, as the award has already been declared by FIFA on 20 July 2026[2][6].

Historically, the Fair Play Award has favoured teams with deep knockout runs and minimal disciplinary incidents, though early exits do not preclude victory if the card tally remains low. Brazil holds the record with four wins, while England and Spain have each won three times[2][9]. The Netherlands’ 2026 accolade marks their first such honour, breaking a pattern where only nations like Spain (2010) have won both the tournament and Fair Play Award in the modern era[2][9]. The current 0% YES probability reflects the market’s failure to update post-tournament closure, despite the official result being public.

Traders should monitor FIFA’s official announcements for any retrospective disciplinary changes, though no such adjustments are expected. The settlement window ends 2026-07-20, and with the winner already declared, the market is effectively settled[2]. No further catalysts—such as squad announcements or injury updates—apply, as the tournament has concluded and the award is confirmed[2][6]. The resolution source remains FIFA’s official record, which lists the Netherlands as the 2026 winner[2][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.