توقع: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test ended in an automatic pad abort just before liftoff on 16 July, when several Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite at T‑0, preventing the Version 3 vehicle from leaving the tower [3][7]. The launch window had opened at 22:45 UTC from Starbase, Texas, with Ship 40 and Booster 20 set to perform the second flight of Block 3 hardware [1][2].

Historically, Starship has seen multiple T‑0 aborts that were resolved within days rather than weeks, with Flight 9 and Flight 11 both scrubbed at ignition before succeeding on subsequent attempts [3]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a successful Flight 13 outcome reflects the immediate abort and the absence of a confirmed re‑try date, mirroring how markets priced Flight 11 before its resolution.

Traders should watch for SpaceX’s official cause analysis and the next scheduled launch window, which could reopen within a few days if the engine‑start fault is cleared quickly [3]. Key dependencies include FAA re‑clearance for any hardware changes, completion of final propellant loading checks, and confirmation of the updated launch time, with a livestream expected 30 minutes before any new attempt [10]. A re‑try announcement on X or the SpaceX mission page will be the primary catalyst for probability shifts [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.