Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller | 72% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller Set 2 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of توقع: hamburg: raul brancaccio vs marvin moeller. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Raul Brancaccio and Marvin Moeller in the Hamburg, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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